Research report no.11 2004
'It's not for lack of wanting kids...'
A report on the Fertility Decision Making Project
by Ruth Weston, Lixia Qu, Robyn Parker and Michael Alexander
6. Comparisons of fertility aspirations, expectations, and achievements
The search for effective policies to stem the declining total fertility rate requires a good understanding of the reasons underlying these trends. One debate on this issue concerns the extent to which trends reflect personal preferences or constraints on lifestyles. While much of the debate has focused on women (e.g. Hakim 2000; McRae 2003), the potential impact on Australia's total fertility rate of men's fertility preferences and experiences of constraints has generated considerable discussion in recent years (e.g. Arndt 2004; Birrell et al. 2004; Horin 2002; Szego 2002). These issues are addressed in this chapter. While in Chapter 5 reference was made to broad trends in aspirations in the analysis of expectations, the present chapter focuses specifically on the extent to which men and women have met, or expect to meet, their fertility aspirations, and the nature of possible constraints upon achievement of aspirations.
Of course, as mentioned in Chapter 5, aspirations influence and are influenced by sociodemographic circumstances. Furthermore, respondents may not be aware of the extent to which their aspirations about having children are influenced by constraints imposed upon them. Again, it is important to note that competing preferences can be understood as constraints - some of which may well relate to social norms and to economic and labour market forces. For instance, as noted in Chapter 1, McDonald (2001b) argues that labour market forces and the strong economic cycle of "booms and busts", along with increases or fluctuations in housing prices, have encouraged young people to focus on developing their own "human capital" (their education and career development) and couples to remain dual earners to avoid "dual joblessness".
While McDonald (2001b) refers to decision-making of couples, most discussions in the literature on fertility decision-making focus on individuals and fail to take into account the possible impact of one partner's views on the other partner - a point noted by Greene and Biddlecom (1997). Given their potential importance, links between the aspirations and expectations of each partner in couples are examined.
This chapter, then, focuses on both objective socio-economic factors that may help to explain relationships between aspirations and expectations, and some of the reasons respondents provide when they expect fewer children, or more children, than they ideally want. The first two sets of analysis focus on desires about having a first or additional child in the future and the size of the gaps between averages derived for ideal family size, expected family size and achieved family size. Of central concern is the extent to which these gaps appear to narrow with advancing age. (Here, the terms "achieved family size", "expected family size" and "ideal family size", are used as replacements for the more technical terms "achieved fertility", "expected fertility" and "ideal fertility". They refer to the number of children the respondent has had, expects to have, or considers to be personally ideal.)
Attention is then directed to the prevalence of a mismatch between aspirations and expectations. Two approaches are adopted to throw light on the nature of constraints on achievement of aspirations: first, the level of variation in the prevalence of an apparent mismatch across different socio-demographic groups is examined, and second, respondents' own explanations for mismatches are outlined. Finally, using data collected from couples, the apparent relative influence of each partner's fertility aspirations on their own and their partner's expectations is examined.
6.1 Fertility desires versus expectations of those without children
Figure 6.1a presents the patterns of fertility expectations of respondents without children who indicated that they "definitely" or "sort of" wanted a child. Figure 6.1b on the other hand provides the same information for those who already had at least one child. The percentages for men in their early twenties with at least one child are not presented, given that there were only 19 such men who indicated both their preferences and expectations. The next smallest group were women in their late thirties who had not had any children (n = 35).
Figure 6.1a. Childless respondents who wanted (definitely or sort of) a child:
proportions expecting a child, by age and gender
Figure 6.1b. Respondents who had children and wanted (definitely or sort of) more:
proportions expecting a child, by age and gender
Across all age groups of childless respondents who wanted children, higher proportions of women than men considered that they were "very likely" to have a child. However, the gender difference is not as strong if the two groups with positive expectations are combined (that is, those who considered that they were "very likely" or "somewhat likely" to have a child). Not surprisingly, expectations declined with increasing age, with the greatest fall occurring between the early and late thirties, especially for women. Only 43 per cent of women and 54 per cent of men in their late thirties (who wanted children) expressed positive expectations, while around 31 per cent of these men and women considered that they had an even chance of having a child. Thus, 26 per cent of these older women and 15 per cent of these older men who were childless but wanted children indicated that they were "somewhat unlikely" or "very unlikely" to have a child - a situation that applied to only 9 per cent of men and 6 per cent of women in their early thirties who wanted a child.
Similar patterns were apparent for parents who wanted another child - with the exception that, unlike other groups, the proportions expressing positive expectations (regardless of confidence level) did not decline with age for mothers who where under 35 (Figure 6.1b). Most fathers and mothers under 35 held positive expectations, while such expectations applied to just over half (54%) the fathers in their late thirties and 41% of their female counterparts. While around one third of those in their late thirties who were childless considered that they had an even chance of having another child, this expectation applied to only 17 per cent of fathers in their late thirties and 24 per cent of mothers of this age. Thus, parents in their late thirties who wanted a child were more likely than non-parents to be pessimistic about achieving this preference (for men: 29% vs 15%; for women: 35% vs 26%).
Helping both non-parents and parents to have (more) children is important for stemming the decline in the fertility rate. On the basis of fertility trends apparent between 1986 and 1996, McDonald (1998), argued that the 27 per cent of women with more than two children contribute to more than 50 per cent of total fertility.
6.2 Family size ideals, expectations and current achievements: a comparison of derived averages
Figures 6.2a and 6.2b show the average (mean) number of children respondents in the four age groups had, the number they expected, and the number they considered to be ideal for them. It is important to note that the number expected includes the number already achieved.
For both men (Figure 6.2a) and women (Figure 6.2b), the average ideal number of children was similar for each age group and was above the replacement level (2.1). In total, women's average ideal number of children was slightly higher than that for men (2.5 vs 2.4).
Figure 6.2a. Men: current, expected and preferred number of children
Figure 6.2b. Women: current, expected and preferred number of children
The average expected number of children was also similar across the four age groups for both men and women, and once again, women, on average, expected a slightly larger family than men (2.1 vs 1.8). Men's average expectation was thus very similar to Australia's total fertility rate (1.75 in 2002), while women's average expectation was roughly the same as the "replacement level" rate.
Furthermore, across all age groups, the average family size that men and women expected to have was lower than their average ideal family size. This is not surprising, given that expectations are likely to be more strongly influenced than personal ideals by perceived constraints - a point noted in Chapter 5.
These trends across age do not necessarily suggest the ideals and expectations regarding family size apparent in respondents' early twenties remain stable as they reach their forties. Rather, it could well be that men and women who are currently in their late thirties held much higher expectations (and perhaps ideals) when they were young adults than they currently hold. Indeed, as Chapter 4 showed, of the respondents aged 22 or more who wanted children when they were 20 years old, 23 per cent of men and 30 per cent of women reported wanting more children at this earlier age than at the time of the interview. Similarly, young adults today may also change their views as they mature. In the light of Australia's generally declining fertility rate since the mid-1960s, a significant proportion of young adults are unlikely to achieve their ambitions - unless key perceived barriers to having children are overcome. These barriers include a mix of competing goals and practical considerations such as finding a partner. Likewise, their ideals are likely to fall if the total fertility rate falls, given that ideals tend to be strongly influenced by societal norms, including the increased tolerance of diverse lifestyles, and trends in partnership formation, family size and age at childbearing.
How closely does the actual number of children born approximate ideals and expectations as these respondents approach their forties? It has already been shown above that, on average, the gap between achieved and expected family size was relatively small for those in their late thirties. It seems likely that, as people approach their forties, they may adjust their aspirations (as well as expectations) to better fit reality. As noted above, the retrospective information derived in this survey suggested that this was the case.
On average, men tend to be two years older than their partners. It is thus not surprising that men in their late thirties had, on average, fewer children than their female counterparts (1.3 vs 1.9), and that the gap between the expected and actual number of children for men in their thirties was greater than that for women of the same age (men: 1.8 vs 1.3 respectively; women: 2.1 vs 1.9 respectively). Some of these women in their late thirties will, in fact, have a child in the future, so the gap between expectations and reality will narrow. Nevertheless, neither the women nor the men were expecting or having the number of children they said they ideally wanted.17
6.3 Prevalence of match between ideals and expectations across socio-demographic groups
The previous section showed that the means derived for expected family size were lower than the means derived for ideal family size. While means are useful summary statistics, they "hide" a great deal of other useful information. For instance, the same mean scores could be derived if almost everyone expected that that they would not have the number of children they ideally wanted, or if most people expected that they would achieve these "ambitions", but of those who did not, higher proportions believed they would have fewer rather than more children than they ideally wanted. This section examines the proportions of respondents who expected to achieve their ideal family size, and the proportions who expected fewer or more children than they considered ideal.
The results for the total sample suggest that personal ideals were not typically seen as unrealistic. Rather, 61 per cent of men and 64 per cent of women indicated that they expected to achieve (or had already achieved) the family size they considered ideal. The means derived for expectations were lower than those derived for ideals because most of the other respondents believed that that they would have fewer children than they considered ideal. This was indicated by 34 per cent of all men and by 32 per cent of all women. The remaining 6 per cent of men and 4 per cent of women believed that they would have more children than they ideally wanted.
Of course, it is not possible to examine the extent to which such trends arise from earlier adjustments of ideals to fit expectations. It should also be kept in mind that "expected family size" includes the number of existing children as well as the number expected. The high level of consistency between ideals and expectations partly arises from the high proportion having already fulfilled their ambitions regarding family size - a trend that appears to be somewhat stronger for women than men. Sixty-one per cent of women who expected to achieve their ideal number of children had already had children compared with 50 per cent of their counterparts who did not expect to be able to achieve their ideal number of children, whereas the proportions of men expecting and not expecting to achieve their ideal family size who were parents were 34 per cent and 28 per cent respectively.
6.3.1 Trends according to age
Figures 6.3a and 6.3b depict the proportions of men and women in their early and late twenties and thirties who indicated the belief that they will achieve their ideals, or will have fewer or more children than they ideally wanted. Clearly, these beliefs did not vary significantly with age for either men or women. The patterns emerging for each group are much the same as those for the total sample of men and women outlined above.
Figure 6.3a. Ideal vs expected number of children, by age, all men
Figure 6.3b. Ideal vs expected number of children, by age, all women
However, as might be expected, the extent of match between ideals and expectations varied significantly with age for women who did not have children. While the same general direction of results emerged for men, the results did not quite reach the conventional five per cent level of statistical significance.18 These results are depicted in Figures 6.4a and 6.4b. While two thirds of the childless men and women in their early twenties appeared to believe they would achieve their ideal family size (66% and 67% respectively), under half of those in their late thirties felt this way (49% and 43% respectively). In fact, a higher proportion of women in their late thirties felt that they would under-achieve rather than achieve their ideal family size (56% vs 43%), while men were evenly divided on this issue. It is noteworthy that even in their early twenties, around 30 per cent of men and women without children felt they would not achieve their ideal family size.
Figure 6.4a. Childless men: ideal vs expected number of children, by age
Figure 6.4b. Childless women: ideal vs expected number of children, by age
6.3.2 Trends according to relationship status
The proportions of respondents expecting to achieve their ideals was strongly related to relationship status for men and women in their twenties and thirties (taken separately). The results are set out in Figures 6.5a and 6.5b.
Figure 6.5a. Ideal vs expected number of children by relationship status and age, all men
Figure 6.5b. Ideal vs expected number of children by relationship status and age, all women
Married men and women appeared to be the most likely to believe that their "ambitions" would be fulfilled, with equal proportions of those in their twenties and thirties feeling this way (men: 70%; women: 69% and 70% respectively). In addition, virtually the same proportion of cohabiting women in their twenties (68%) as married women expected that they would achieve their expectations.
The groups who were next most likely to believe that they would achieve their ambitions were cohabiting women in their thirties (64%), cohabiting men in their twenties and thirties (61% for each age group), and single men and women in their twenties (61% and 59% respectively). Not surprisingly, those least likely to expect that they would achieve their ambitions were single men and women in their thirties. Indeed, a slightly higher proportion of these older single men felt that they would "underachieve" than meet their ambition (50% vs 45%) while the reverse applied for women in their thirties (45% vs 52%).
Of course, married respondents were more likely than single respondents to already have the number of children they ideally wanted (men in their twenties: 13% vs 7%; men in their thirties: 46% vs 21%; women in their twenties: 21% vs 12%; women in their thirties: 50% vs 39%).
While few respondents felt that they would have more children than they considered ideal, it is interesting to note that a higher proportion of married and cohabiting men in their twenties felt this way (12% and 11% respectively vs 3% of single men in their twenties, and 5% to 7% of all men in their thirties). (The proportions of women indicating this ranged from 3% to 8%). As will be seen later, partner's views, a desire to give their only child a sibling, or a desire to have both a boy and a girl were some of the reasons given for expecting more children than they ideally wanted.
In short, those most likely to indicate that they had or expected to achieve their ideal family size were married respondents both in their twenties and thirties, although cohabiting men and women were not very far behind. Those who were most likely to expect that they would not have as many children as they ideally wanted were single respondents in their thirties. Although applying to a small minority, married and cohabiting men in their twenties were the most likely to expect that they either had or expected to have more children than they ideally wanted.
6.3.3 Trends according to education
The prevalence of a match between family size ideals and expectations did not vary significantly with the educational status of men and women in their twenties or thirties (refer Figures 6.6a and 6.6b). Of men in their twenties, 58 per cent of those with no post-school qualifications expected to have their ideal number of children, compared with 66 per cent of those with or pursuing degrees. In addition, 10 per cent of the former group and 3 per cent of the latter group expected (or already had) more children than they considered ideal.
Although the overall patterns of results for these men were not significant, when the two groups with or pursuing post-school qualifications are combined, then differences emerged for both men in their twenties and thirties (taken separately). Those with no post-school qualifications were less likely than other men to expect to achieve their ideal family size.
Figure 6.6a. Ideal vs expected number of children by education and age, all men
Figure 6.6b. Ideal vs expected number of children by education and age, all women
6.3.4 Trends according to employment status
The final set of analyses in this general section focus on employment status (see Figures 6.7a and 6.7b). The relationships between the incidence of match or mismatch of ideals and expectations and employment status were significant for men and women in their thirties, but not for those in their twenties.
Of men in their thirties, those in full-time paid work were the most likely to believe that they had or would achieve their ideal family size, while men in part-time work were the least likely to feel this way (62% vs 42%). Men in part-time work were more likely to believe that they would "underachieve" than achieve their ambition (58% vs 42%). As the previous sets of analyses suggest, this was an unusual situation. Reasons for this trend emerging for men in part-time work but not for men without employment are not readily apparent. However, it is worth noting that a total of 44 per cent of men in their thirties who were not employed also felt that they would not achieve their ambition, with 39 per cent feeling that they would "under-achieve" their ideal family size, and 5 per cent feeling that they had or would have more children than they ideally wanted.
Figure 6.7a. Ideal vs expected number of children by employment status and age, all men
Figure 6.7b. Ideal vs expected number of children by employment status and age, all women
These trends seem generally consistent with the argument that men with potentially sound financial prospects are the most likely to be able to marry and establish families, while those with poor financial prospects are the least likely to be able to do so (Birrell et al. 2004). According to Birrell and colleagues either the latter groups are reluctant to assume the responsibilities of marriage and parenting or women are reluctant to see them as suitable partners.19 However it was shown in Chapter 3 that men without paid work were just as likely as men with full-time paid work to have at least one child.
An understandably different pattern of results emerged for women in their thirties than for men of this age. Women in their thirties with full-time paid work were the least likely of all women to indicate that they had achieved or expected to achieve their ideal family size. On the other hand, women without paid work were the most likely to indicate a match between current or expected family size and ideal family size (69% vs 56% of those in full-time paid work). This is hardly surprising, given that most of those not in paid work would be caring for the children they wanted to have.
Of greater importance than this comparison is the relatively high proportion of women in their thirties in paid work who did not expect to have the number of children they wanted (40%, compared with 27% of women who were not employed). Some of these women may be working full-time because they are no longer physically able to have children, because they lack a partner, or their partner is against having children. Others may be doing so because they need the money, because they find that they cannot juggle both work and (more) children, and/or because work happens to be even more important to them. In other words, full-time paid work may be operate as a contributor to apparent unfulfilled fertility ambitions and as a result of other factors that interfere with the ability to fulfil fertility ambitions.
Thus, relationships between the expectations-ideals match and socio-demographic factors raise many questions worth exploring in future analysis. To throw further light on the possible reasons for a mismatch between ideals and expectations, respondents in the current study were asked to explain the reasons for expecting fewer children (or more children) than they ideally wanted. Their comments are outlined in the next section.
6.4 Perceived reasons for a mismatch between ideals and expectations
As noted above, 34 per cent of all men and 32 per cent of all women indicated that they would have fewer children than they considered ideal, while only 6 per cent of men and 4 per cent of women suggested that the number of children they had or expected was greater than the number they considered ideal. Most respondents gave a variety of reasons for these views, although some reported they did not know the reason for the mismatch between ideals and expectations. This uncertainty was mentioned by nearly one quarter (22% of men and 22% of women) of those who felt they would not have as many children as they wanted, and by around one third (36% of men and 33% of women) who had or expected more children than they considered ideal.
The examples of explanations provided by respondents are divided into four sets, with the first two referring to those who expected that they would not achieve their ideal family size: (a) where respondents were not expecting a first or additional child or another, and (b) where they were expecting such a child. The second two sets refer to those who had or were expecting more children than they considered ideal: (a) where respondents did not want any (more) children, and (b) where they wanted a first or additional child in the future.
Some of the quotations below cover more than implied by the category under which they are placed.
6.4.1 Reasons for wanting but not expecting to have a/another child
The reasons mentioned for not expecting to have a child or more children mainly centred on financial or work-related issues, partnerships, age, and fecundity or health issues. Some felt they were too young yet - they had other goals such as career goals that they wished to achieve before thinking of having children. There was thus a sense that they might change their minds. Others felt they were too old to have children - or would be too old by the time they found a partner.
Health and fecundity
Just because of a lot of health issues involved, and I'm not really IVF-minded which takes that option away from happening. (Woman aged 34, married)
I had to get my tubes tied because of complications during pregnancy, so a future pregnancy is extremely dangerous for my health. (Woman aged 25, married)
I am on the IVF program. I'm not having any success with it. My [partner] and I are finding it very difficult to conceive. It took us a long time to conceive [first child]. We are unable to have children now. I really want two more children. (Woman aged 35, married)
My wife has back problems that prevent her from having children. She probably wouldn't be able to carry the child through the pregnancy, and the risk associated with her becoming pregnant isn't worth it. (Man aged 33, married)
Lack of partner (and age or work)
Because I'm not in a relationship and it's unlikely at present that I'll be in one for the future. (Woman aged 37, single)
I'm single at the moment. It takes two to tango, and I have no prospects in the immediate future. (Man aged 28, single)
I'm not actively looking for a partner. I don't really want a child when I'm in my forties and I can't see myself getting into another relationship that quickly. (Woman, aged 38, single)
I'm too shy now. I work too much and seem to get nowhere. I work six days a week and only get one day off. I'm not really interested in getting serious with anyone. You don't know until you meet the right person and I'm unlikely to meet someone at the moment. (Man aged 29, single)
Partner's wishes (and age)
I don't think my partner would like another one. (Woman aged 36, married)
My current partner does not want one, but if I was to get into another relationship with a guy that had no kids and he wanted one then I would have another child. (Woman, 35, cohabiting)
There are time constraints for me because of my age. When my partner becomes ready to have children there is only a small window of time in which I can still physically have them. (Woman, aged 38, cohabiting)
It's [partner's] fault. She's done all the hard work of nappies and crying and she doesn't really feel like doing it all again. (Man aged 28, married)
Financial or/work-related issues
Finances - I would lose my job and we could not cope as a family unit. (Woman aged 33, cohabiting)
We would need a new house and car, and the educational costs would be huge. Financial concerns are huge factors that prevent us from expanding. It would be too much. (Woman aged 33, married)
In the next five years or so I will be focusing on my career. I do some work that is not your average day-to-day stuff. I am just not ready to settle down. For me, my job is a lifestyle. (Man aged 28, single)
6.4.2 Reasons for expecting to have fewer children than considered ideal
Not surprisingly, those expecting to have fewer children than they ideally wanted also commonly mentioned fecundity and other health issues, lack of a partner, and partner's wishes.
Health and fecundity
I feel I might have some problems with my fertility. I don't have any hard evidence to back these feelings up or any medical abnormalities or problems as such. It's just that my grandmother had problems with her fertility. (Woman aged 21, single)
I'm not well. I've been told I might not be able to have kids. (Woman aged 26, cohabiting)
Lack of partner and age
I would like to have three children altogether but two would be enough. I'm getting on, age-wise, and would need to be in a committed relationship of at least one year before going into having children together. Time-wise I'm running out and could end up being too old. (Man aged 33, single)
I am 38 yrs old and haven't yet met anyone I would like to spend the rest of my life with. That is the only situation in which I would want to have children. I think after early 40's it's too late. (Man aged 38, single)
Because I am not in a relationship at the moment and have been single for over five years - so it's really hard to say what will happen. (Woman aged 28, single)
Depends whether I get married or not. I believe children should be in a family situation with both parents present. (Man aged 29, single)
Partner's wishes
My partner doesn't really want to have any more, but we're compromising. (Woman aged 23, married)
Because [partner] would prefer to have two. He grew up with just one brother, and that is his ideal family size. That is more affordable than my three-child family size. (Woman aged 28, married)
Financial and/or job-related reasons
Purely because of the financial circumstances. I'd want to be able buy more for my kids and life seems so much more expensive than it was when I was growing up - computers, sports stuff, clothing labels etc. The pressure now is more intense than before. (Woman aged 27, single)
The economics of it. It's too expensive to have more than two children. Also, I find it difficult to find a job that's flexible enough for family commitments. Also, childcare is too expensive and too hard to find. (Woman aged 32, married)
I expect to have fewer kids than five purely because of financial reasons. I'd have to marry a millionaire to be able to afford five children. (Woman aged 32, single)
6.4.3 Reasons for expecting to have a child/more children despite not wanting this
Amongst those who expected a(nother) child but did not want to do so, a number of people indicated that they may later change their mind. Once again, financial and work-related concerns were commonly mentioned, along with partnership issues. But predominantly, these people saw their aspirations about having children as contingent on their circumstances or increasing maturity.
Personal views about having children may well change
As I feel now I don't want to have any children but I expect my attitudes to change with age or in time. I think possibly the hormones will kick in and I'll really want to. I don't know. It's like an expectation of life that people end up having kids. (Woman aged 30, married)
I might change my attitudes and opinions when I get older. (Man aged 26, single)
My circumstances may change; I might become stable in a relationship. I may want to have a child with a future partner. (Woman aged 30, single)
It is not that I don't want to have children, just that at the moment my situation is not child-friendly. It may change or it may not change; my lifestyle is open to change. (Man aged 28, single)
Chances are I might end up changing my mind. Depending on relationship chances I might change my mind about having children. I guess it just depends on what happens, if I meet someone and things are right you never know! (Woman aged 22, single)
Partner's wishes
It comes down to my partner. She has never had children before and she may want to have one, so it's quite possible. I think therefore we would talk about it. (Man aged 30, in a committed relationship but not living with partner)
Because I love my husband, and I know how much he wants a boy so I guess we would try one more time. (Woman aged 20, married)
I only have a one year old and do not want to go through the infant stage again with another child, but my partner would like to try for a boy (Woman aged 30, married)
Financial and work-related issues
It's not really that I don't want to have a child - it's whether the timing is right or not financially for me because at present I'm not working, so I wouldn't consider it now. (Man, 32, single)
If my current situation improved in terms of financial stability, I would re-evaluate my willingness to father a child or children. (Man aged 21, single)
I just want to get a job first, and do study before I think about having another child. (Woman aged 25, cohabiting)
6.4.4 Reasons for expecting to have more children than considered ideal
Unlike the respondents who expected to have fewer children than they ideally wanted, a number of those who indicated that they had, or would have, more children than they considered ideal often referred to their partner's wishes, to children's issues, and/or existing family issues. Financial and work-related issues along with lifestyle issues received relatively little mention.
Partner's wishes
Because my partner is so keen on having kids. (Man aged 20, cohabiting)
It is (partner's) choice. But we have agreed upon it. It is something we have talked about extensively. (Man aged 26, married)
I guess I'm not really that strongly opinionated when it comes to family size, so I expect to have as many as (partner) wants because she feels a lot more strongly about it than I do and her ideal family size is three. (Man, aged 34, in a committed relationship but not living together)
Because (partner) would like to have more children. He would like to have four. (Woman, age 21, in a committed relationship but not living together)
Subsequent children provide company for first child
If you only have one it's a little selfish as the child is brought up on its own without siblings. (Woman aged 24, cohabiting)
Because (partner) has more of a convincing argument, and also for the benefit of the first child. (Man aged 24, cohabiting)
To have a gender mix of children
Because I would really like to have a little girl as well as the little boy I already have. If I had another child and it was a boy I suspect we might try again so I could have a little girl as well. (Woman aged 35, married)
Because my partner would probably want more, and I would like to have a boy and a girl and if that didn't happen I would keep going. (Woman aged 27, cohabiting)
In summary, financial and work-related reasons seemed to be a more common issue amongst those who believed they would not reach their ideal family size, than those who believed they had or would have more children than they wanted. Age, fecundity and other health problems were commonly mentioned by those who expected to have fewer children than desired, including those who did not expect any (more) children. Finally, amongst respondents who did not want children but expected they might do so, there was a common sense that they may change their preferences with age or with changing circumstances. Such comments highlight the fact that fertility decision-making often changes with time - but some of the comments of those who did not expect to achieve their ideal family size highlight the fact that time may well run out before any change of heart can be accommodated.
Like the socio-demographic analysis, partnership issues were clearly important in all four scenarios. Lack of a partner was seen as a barrier to having children, and some who did not want (more) children believed that they might change their mind if they found a suitable partner. However, the partner's wishes were often seen as a reason for a mismatch between ideals and expectations, highlighting the fact that having children is a couple decision rather than personal decision, where one partner may be prepared to submit to the wishes of the other partner. Possible gender effects in the contribution of one partner's aspirations on the other's expectations are explored in the next section.
6.5 Links between each partner's aspirations and expectations
Much of the research into fertility decision-making has failed to take into account couple dynamics. However, as might be expected, there is some evidence to suggest that, when couples disagree about having children, intentions tend to shift towards not having a child (Thomson 1997a, 1997b). To what extent did couples in the current study share the same expectations about the total number of children they would have?
While some partners would have already had a different number of children each, 5 per cent shared the expectation that they would not have children, and 71 per cent nominated the same number of children. Nearly two thirds of these couples (64%), expected two children and more than one quarter (28%) expected three.
For the same proportions of couples, the female partner expected more children than the male partner (9%) and the male partner expected more children than the female partner (9%). In most of these cases of disagreement, one of the partners expected two children and the other expected three.
This level of agreement regarding expectations is higher than that regarding aspirations: in only 2% of couples, both partners viewed no children as their ideal, while in 64% of couples, both partners wanted the same number of children. Like the patterns for expectations, most of these couples wanted two children (61%) and a substantial proportion wanted three (31%).
To what extent do the aspirations of one partner influence the other partner's expectations? Which partner (male or female) is likely to have the stronger influence? Partial correlations were applied to the data to address this question. With this approach, the correlation between two sets of variables is derived after removing the effect of a third variable. Here the five-point rating scales were used as interval data, ranging from "definitely want" a child to "definitely do not want" a child, and from "very likely" to have a child to "very unlikely" to do so. The four sets of partial correlations derived are presented in Table 6.1.
The coefficient of 0.51 refers to the correlation between the female partner's personal aspirations and her personal expectations about having a child. This is the strongest of all correlations. The second strongest is that between the male partner's personal aspirations and his personal expectations (0.45), while the third strongest is that between "her" aspirations and "his" expectations (0.23). This is quite weak, for it suggests that only five per cent of the variance in his expectations is predictable from the variance in "her" aspirations. The correlation between "his" aspirations and "her" expectations is the weakest (0.14).
| Her expectations | His expectations | |
|---|---|---|
| Her aspirations | 0.51 | 0.23 |
| His aspirations | 0.14 | 0.45 |
If these correlations imply causal connections between variables, then it would appear that, while personal aspirations have the strongest impact on personal expectations for each partner, "her" aspirations may be playing some role in explaining "his" expectations, albeit minor according to this analysis, while "his aspirations" play an even lesser role in explaining "her" expectations.
However, for many couples, a great deal of influence between partners is likely to have occurred in the past, not only in terms of expectations, but also in terms of aspirations. Longitudinal studies and in-depth qualitative approaches represent more appropriate means of assessing the influence of one partner's views (both preferences and expectations) on those of the other partner.
Consistent with the general direction of trends suggested by the correlations, Figure 6.8 suggests that, when each partner wants a child, then not surprisingly, each is particularly likely to expect such a child (91% of men; 86% of women). When one partner does not want a child or is quite uncertain about this, then the other partner is less likely than otherwise to expect a child.
Figure 6.8. Congruence between respondent's and partner's fertility expectations20
As Thomson (1997a, 1997b) concluded from her USA research on fertility desires and intentions, it appears that a partner's negative views "dampen" the expectations of the other partner. This "dampening" effect appears to be more the case when it is the female partner who is against having, or feels quite uncertain about having, a child (where 50% of the men and 20% of the women expect a child). Where the male partner alone feels negative or quite unsure about having a child, then 28 per cent of the men and 72 per cent of the women expect to have a child).
However, it should also be noted that disagreement also appeared to raise the expectations of having a child of the partner who did not want or was unsure about having a child - an effect that seemed slightly stronger for men than women. This effect, which is also apparent in explanations provided by respondents for expecting more children than they considered ideal, tends to be ignored in the literature.
While the numbers of couples in "disagreement" are very small, the results are consistent with the partial correlation analysis and with similar analysis conducted by Qu and Weston (2003) of data from the Household, Income and Labour Dynamics in Australia (HILDA) Survey.21 It appears that, while each partner's views play an important role in expectations, it is the female partner's aspirations that typically carry the greater weight.
6.6 Summary and conclusions
This chapter examined the level of consistency between expectations and preferences or personal ideals. Issues examined covered: (a) the fertility desires compared with expectations reported by those without children; (b) the extent to which the gap between averages derived for ideal, expected and achieved family size narrows with advancing age, (c) ways in which the prevalence of a match between ideals and expectations varies across different socio-demographic groups, (d) reasons offered by respondents for their perceived mismatch between ideals and expectations, and (e) links between the aspirations and expectations of each partner in couples. Key results and comments on them are summarised below.
6.6.1 Fertility desires versus expectations of those without children.
While more women than men believed that they were "very likely" to achieve this ambition, expectations declined with age, particularly between the early and late thirties. In fact, only a minority of women in their late thirties, and just over half the men of this age, who wanted children believed they would achieve their ambition. Similar patterns in expectations occurred for parents who wanted another child. Such trends highlight the fact that the decline in the fertility rate is by no means a rejection of family life.
6.6.2 Family size ideals, expectations and current achievements: a comparison of derived averages
The second section compared the averages (means) that were derived for ideal number of children, expected number of children, and actual (achieved) number of children. The averages for ideal number of children were similar across all age groups, were above the replacement level of 2.1 children per woman, and tended to be slightly higher for women than men. The averages for the expected number of children were also similar across age groups but were consistently lower than those for ideal number of children. Women, on average, expected a slightly larger family than men, and women's expectations were, on average, close to the replacement level of 2.1, while those of men were close to Australia's actual total fertility rate (1.75 in 2002). Thus, while the gap between expectations and achievements narrowed significantly with age, expectations remained lower than achievements. Similar average expectations and ideals across age may mask a great deal of change in these cognitions. For instance, the ideals and expectations of the oldest cohort may have been higher when they were younger. Indeed, retrospective data reported in Chapter 4 suggests that preferred family size is more likely to fall rather than rise as people age. This is consistent with a number of other Australian and overseas studies (see McDonald 2002).
6.6.3 Prevalence of match between expectations across socio-demographic groups
Most respondents believed that they had already achieved, or would achieve, the number of children they considered to be personally ideal, although some of these people may have modified their ambitions to fit their circumstances. Most of the remaining respondents who experienced a mismatch between ideals and expectations felt that they would have fewer children than they wanted. The analysis examined the extent of match across the four age groups of men and women (taken separately), and the extent of match across relationship status, education and employment status for men and women in their twenties and thirties (again, taken separately).
Patterns for age
For the sample as a whole, the proportions of men and women indicating that they had either achieved or expected to achieve their ideal family size did not vary significantly with age. However, for childless women in particular, expectations of achieving their ideal family size declined with advancing age, while expectations of under-achieving this ideal increased. In fact, a higher proportion of childless women in their late thirties appeared to believe they would under-achieve rather than achieve their ideal family size. The general direction of trends for men without children also suggested increasing pessimism with advancing age, but this pattern of results did not quite reach the conventional level of statistical significance.
Relationship status patterns
Expectations about the achievement of ideals were strongly related to relationship status for men and women in both age groups (those in their twenties and thirties). In general, married men and women were the most likely to believe that they already had or would achieve their ideals, while single women were the least likely to feel this way. This is consistent with the fact that most couples wait until they are married before they have children. Single respondents are more likely than cohabiting respondents to consider this to be a remote chance, for it appears that many couples in cohabiting relationships expect to marry (Qu 2003).
Education level patterns
The proportions who had achieved, or expected to achieve, their ideal family size did not vary significantly across the three educational status groups for men and women (taken separately). However, significant trends emerged for men when the data for all those with some sort of postschool qualification were combined. These men were significantly more likely to indicate that they either had achieved or expected to achieve their ideal family size. While these results seem to be consistent with the arguments put forward by Birrell et al. (2004) regarding the difficulties men with limited human capital have in establishing families, Chapter 3 showed that the men most likely to have at least one child were those with no post-school qualifications. Men without post-school qualifications were also the least likely of all men to have a partner. It may therefore be that some of these fathers wanted more children but had lost the opportunities for doing so.
Employment status patterns
The extent of match between ideals and expectations varied significantly with employment status for those in their thirties - but in contrasting ways for men and women. Firstly, men working full-time were the most likely of all men to expect that they would have the number of children they considered ideal and the least likely of all men to expect that they would have fewer than they considered ideal. For the most part, these men would have been in relatively better financial positions to achieve their ambitions than the other men.
Interestingly, men who worked part-time were even less likely than men who had no paid work to expect that they would have fewer children than they considered ideal. In fact, more men in the former group seemed to be "pessimistic" (that is, they felt they would have fewer than they considered ideal) rather than "optimistic" about achieving their ideals - a situation that was unusual in these various sets of analyses.
Unlike their male counterparts, women in their thirties who were working full-time were the least likely of all women of this age to believe that they would achieve their ideals, and the most likely to believe that they would have fewer children than they ideally wanted. Those most likely to feel they had achieved, or would achieve, their ideal family size were those who were not in paid work.
Such trends are not surprising. Firstly, women who were not in paid work were likely to be caring for the child or children they hoped to have. Secondly, a financial need for, or competing desire to pursue, full-time work may be seen as a barrier to achieving fertility ambitions. Difficulties in gaining access to high quality and affordable child care, along with difficulties in balancing work and family life, may well enter into these considerations. On the other hand, some women would have been in full-time paid work because they had no family-related reasons for giving up such work. They may lack a partner, their partner may not want any (more) children, they may have health problems, or they may have found a partner too late in life to be able to have children.
In an attempt to throw further light on the reasons underlying any mismatch between ideals and expectations, respondents were asked to provide explanations for any perceived mismatch.
6.6.4 Perceived reasons for a mismatch between ideals and expectations
Those expecting to have fewer children than they wanted tended to focus mainly on practical barriers including age, fecundity and other health problems, lack of a partner, partner's wishes, and financial or work-related issues. Some felt they were already too old, or would be too old by the time they found a suitable partner, while others felt they were too young to be considering having a family - their circumstances or competing needs operated as a barrier, although they acknowledged that these aspects of their lives may change.
Similarly, those not wanting, but nonetheless expecting, to have a first or another child often considered that they might change their minds with changing circumstances or increasing maturity. A change of mind was variously contingent on such factors as improvements in financial or work-related issues and changes in partner's views or in personal priorities. In addition, some respondents who expected they would have more children than they wanted referred to their current family structure: the desire for a gender mix of children and the desire to provide company for their only child. Such comments highlight the way in which competing personal goals can pose constraints on the achievement of fertility aspirations.
Thus, as suggested in the socio-demographic analyses undertaken, partnership issues were clearly important. Difficulties in finding a partner often seemed to be a primary factor for those not currently in a relationship, while for others who were in a relationship the partner's views were often considered important. This highlights the fact that fertility decision-making needs to be understood as decision-making of couples. The final issue examined, then, involved analysis of data on couples.
6.6.5 Links between each partner's aspirations and expectations
Analysis of the links between each partner's aspirations and expectations suggested that the most common response was that both partners either agreed in wanting children or agreed in not wanting (or at least feeling unsure about having) children. Where there was disagreement, a "dampening" effect appeared to occur for the partner who wanted children and an "elevating" effect appeared to occur for the partner who was at best unsure about having a child. At the same time, there was evidence that it was the female partner's aspirations that carried the greater weight.
In short, this chapter suggests that the vast majority of respondents wanted children, their ideal family size tended to be above the "replacement level" of 2.1 children per woman, but average family size expectations fell considerably short of this level. Nevertheless, most men and women expected to achieve their ideal family size, but those who did not were more likely to expect to under-achieve than over-achieve their ambition. Delays in having children meant that significant numbers were missing out on having the number of children they ideally wanted. These delays were often linked with partnering issues, education level (for men), and paid work status. Men with limited "human capital" as measured by education and weekly hours of paid work appeared to be more pessimistic than other men, but women working full-time were more likely to indicate pessimism than other women.
The next chapter focuses more closely on the issues that men and women consider important in making decisions of whether or not to have a child. These issues include perceived costs and benefits of having children.
- While it is noteworthy that women in their late thirties had more children than Australia's current TFR (1.75), it should be borne in mind that the TFR is based on the number of live births for different age groups of women per 1000 women of the same age in the population. Thus, the TFR takes into account births across all childbearing ages. In the current samples, the average numbers of children men and women had were 0.60 and 1.14 respectively. These averages, however, do not take into account the different numbers of respondents in each age group. The average of the averages for each age group is 0.62 for men and 1.09 for women. [back]
- p<.10 for men and p<.001 for women. [back]
- It is not possible to assess whether one of these alternatives is the more likely, for some of those who wanted more children than they expected may have voluntarily decided not to have such children (the first alternative mentioned above); others may not have been able to find a partner; and of those with partners, some may have found their partners were reluctant to have a first or additional child. [back]
- Those expecting to have a child represent those who indicated that it was "likely" or "very likely" that they would have a child. Those "wanting" to have a child represent those who indicated that "definitely" or "sort of want". Those "not wanting" to have a child represent those who "definitely" or "sort of" did not want a child. [back]
- The HILDA survey is an indefinite life household panel survey funded by the Australian Government, through the Department of Family and Community Services. The survey is being designed and managed by a consortium led by the Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research University of Melbourne). Other partners are the Australian Council for Educational Research and the Australian Institute of Family Studies. [back]