Research report no.11 2004
'It's not for lack of wanting kids...'
A report on the Fertility Decision Making Project
by Ruth Weston, Lixia Qu, Robyn Parker and Michael Alexander
8. Summary and conclusions
Australia's fertility rate has fallen dramatically since the 1960s. It is now at an all-time low and well below replacement level. With the first of the baby boomers turning 60 in 2006, the economic and social challenges of an ageing population loom large. Strategies to meet these challenges are being implemented, including the encouragement of later retirement, changes to superannuation laws, and the promotion of retirement savings.
Unless this decline in fertility is stemmed, however, Australia will face not only an ageing population but also one whose numbers diminish. The search has thus begun for strategies to help stem the decline. Such a search necessarily entails an understanding of the reasons for fertility trends, at both the macro and micro levels.
This report has largely focused on the latter. Within the micro level, the focus was on the aspirations and expectations of men and women in their prime childbearing years (age 20-39 years) and the issues that they considered important when thinking about having children. Particular attention has been given to the ways in which such views on having children vary according to age, gender, parenting status, relationship status, educational level, and employment status.
The aspirations examined included the family size respondents considered to be personally ideal; whether or not they wanted a first or additional child in the future; whether or not those aged 22 or more had changed their family size preferences since they were 20 years old, and reasons for any change; the reasons leading some of the childless respondents to prefer not to have children; and views about the ideal age for the respondents themselves to start, or to have started, a family. Respondents were also asked to indicate how likely it was that they would have a child in the future. Those who thought they would have a child in the future were asked to indicate the year in which they were likely to have this child and the total number of children they were likely to have. Reasons for any mismatches between aspirations and expectations were sought. Respondents were also asked to rate the importance of a number of issues when thinking about having children.
8.1 Aspirations
To the extent this sample is representative of the Australian population, it seems clear that Australians in their primary childbearing years want to have children; "childlessness" was not a popular choice. Indeed, most respondents were either parents or wanted to be parents. While it appears that around one quarter of women who are in their reproductive years will never have children (ABS 2002b), less than 10 per cent of childless men and women in the present survey reported that they did not want children. Even among childless men and women in their late thirties, more than half wanted to have a child.
The small minority who preferred to remain childless tended to offer a combination of reasons for this preference. Consistent with two previous surveys conducted at the Australian Institute of Family Studies (Weston & Qu 2001), these included practical considerations (such as age, partnering status, health and fecundity); partner's views and reproductive history; a dislike of children; work, financial and lifestyle choices; the difficulties of childbearing; concerns about the capacity to be a good parent; the belief that the world is not good for children; and concerns about overpopulation. Some of these obstacles are amenable to policy intervention.
For childless men and women, views about having a child varied significantly with age and relationship status. Although most childless younger respondents in all relationship status groups "definitely" wanted to have a child, married respondents were the most likely to feel this way and single respondents were the least likely to do so. However, even for those in their late thirties, the most common response of single respondents without children was that they "definitely" wanted a child. Few seemed to be definitely against having a child. Lack of a partner thus seems more a barrier to having children than a reflection of any strong desire to avoid family life.
For those in their twenties and thirties (taken separately), childless men and women with or pursuing higher qualifications were as likely, or more likely, as those without any post-school qualifications to definitely want a child in the future. Furthermore, educational status did not appear to be strongly linked with ideal family size either for men or women. Nevertheless, men and women who had or were pursuing a degree or higher qualification were less likely to be parents than their counterparts who neither had nor were pursuing any post-school qualifications. Although men with no post-school qualifications were more likely to be parents, they were less likely to be partnered compared with other men.
Across all ages (early and late twenties and thirties), men and women most commonly indicated that they would ideally like to have two children. While families of at least three children are becoming less common, a family of three children was the second most popular choice of the respondents in this study. Furthermore, around one in five men and women with three children wanted a fourth child. Relatively few respondents wanted one child or no children.
The average family size considered personally ideal was 2.4 children for men and 2.5 children for women - averages that are well above replacement level (2.1). While most of those in their twenties had not yet started a family, there was no indication that men and women of this age currently wanted fewer children than men and women in their thirties. Nevertheless, according to the recollections of respondents aged 22 or more about their family size preferences at age 20, the tendency to have revised their preferences downwards appeared to increase with increasing age.
A preference for two children dominated regardless of relationship status. Nevertheless, unmarried respondents in their late thirties were more likely than married respondents of this age to consider no children or only one child to be ideal for them. However, the cross-sectional design of this study does not allow an assessment of the extent to which this difference in views reflects adjustment to relationship status circumstances or the impact of fertility preferences on relationship status decisions (where those who want larger families are particularly likely to get married and to remain married). Finally, despite the popularity of two-child families, a substantial minority of respondents (especially women) in their thirties who were single, cohabiting or married indicated a preference for four or more children.
Most parents who were against the idea of having another child indicated that they were "definite" in their views. It thus seems likely that any policies that could be introduced in the future to make it easier for parents to have larger family sizes would have little impact on those who are already against such an idea.
8.2 Stability of preferences
Regardless of their current age, most childless men and women aged 22 or more indicated that they wanted children when they were 20 years old and at the time of the survey. Furthermore, family size preferences did not appear to change over time for most men in each age group and most women aged under 35. Nevertheless, as noted above, the proportions indicating a downward revision of family size preferences increased with increasing age and became progressively more common than upward revision.
Interestingly, the reasons for respondents revising their family size aspirations downward and upward often related to the same domains. While financial and work-related reasons were often seen as constraints that led to a downward revision, a few respondents who wanted more children than when they were 20 years old mentioned their improved financial resources or job situation. Perceptions of financial resources were sometime couched in issues related to the desire to give children a good start in life, including educationally. For some, personal values and beliefs about how to maximize children's life chances led to perceptions of financial constraints.
Once again, partnership issues, along with age and fecundity, emerged as reasons for changing family size aspirations. While lack of a partner and relationship breakdown led to revisions downwards, finding a partner and feeling secure in this relationship was often mentioned as a reason for upward revision. And while some of those who were already approaching their forties saw their age and fecundity problems as reasons for downward revisions, upward revision of family size was sometimes explained in terms of having "grown up".
The pressures of parenting sometimes appeared to trigger downward revision while for some, the joys experienced in parenting led them to think about having more children. Clearly, improving access to strategies that help those who are finding the task of parenting a stressful one is important. There also needs to be a change in the way in which parenting is perceived by many of those who are yet to have children. As noted in Chapter 1, parenting has been devalued, while the present project suggests that the positive aspects of having children tend to be overlooked.
8.3 Expectations
Like aspirations, expectations were consistent with the current "two-child family" norm for both men and women. Nevertheless, the proportions of respondents who expected a first or additional child were lower than the proportions indicating that they would like to have such a child. Amongst the childless, those who were the most likely to expect to have a family were married, while those in their thirties without cohabiting or married partners were the least likely to expect to have a family.
Childless men (especially those in their twenties) who neither had nor were pursuing post-school qualifications were significantly less likely than those with or pursuing degrees to expect to have children - a trend that is consistent with the argument that men with limited financial resources are either reluctant to take on the financial responsibilities of parenting or pessimistic about their opportunities for doing so (see Birrell et al. 2004). Nevertheless, a definite desire for a child was expressed by much the same proportions of childless in each of the three educational status groups (over 60 per cent of those in their twenties and close to half of those in their thirties). Interventions that successfully help such men develop their "human capital" potential may well remove an important barrier to marriage and family life.
The total number of children expected varied significantly with the educational level of women but not men. Compared with their counterparts with no qualifications, higher proportions of women who had or were pursuing some form of post-school qualifications expected to have no children and lower proportions expected to have a family of three children.
8.4 Ideals compared with expectations
As noted above, the vast majority of respondents wanted children. But while their ideal family size tended to be above the "replacement level" of 2.1 children per woman, average family size expectations fell considerably short of this level. However, these averages hide the fact that most men and women expected to achieve their ideal family size. The direction of difference in the averages for ideal and expected family size was driven by the fact that a higher proportion of those who reported a mismatch between expectations and ideals indicated that they expected fewer rather than more children than they considered ideal.
One of the key reasons for people expecting to have fewer children than they wanted is the delay in starting a family. Both men and women without partners (especially those in their thirties), and men with limited "human capital", as measured by education and weekly hours of paid work, were less likely than their counterparts to expect to achieve their family size aspirations. Older women in full-time paid work were less likely than other women to expect to have the number of children they ideally wanted.
While most research focuses on individuals rather than couples, the importance of a partner's views or reproductive history featured in some of the explanations for not wanting or expecting children, for revising family size preferences upward or downward, or for expecting more or fewer children than preferred. This highlights the fact that, in most cases, having children is a couple decision - and a decision that is lost to those who feel they have little prospect of finding a partner. In relation to couples, there was some evidence to suggest that the female partner's aspirations about having a child were more influential in shaping the expectations of the male partner than vice versa. However, because this conclusion is based on correlational data and the magnitude of the correlations is quite small, this conclusion is best viewed as an hypothesis.
8.5 Issues rated as important when thinking about having children
The issues that were most likely to be considered particularly important when thinking about having children were the capacity to support a child financially and the capacity of each partner to be good parents. The male partner's job security was also a key issue for most men and women. Other matters rated highly important by close to 50 per cent or more of men and women were having someone to love, the female partner's age, and uncertainty that the relationship will last. By contrast, only one quarter of men and women emphasised concerns that may reflect an emphasis on individualism: having time for leisure and social activities, and the ability to make major purchases.
However, the respondents' views tended to vary according to the various socio-demographic characteristics examined. These characteristics themselves were closely inter-connected. Most particularly, age, marital status, and parenting status interacted. In general respondents without children (who are, of course, more likely to be younger and unmarried) were more prone than those with children to emphasise many of the issues examined - perhaps suggesting that the "unknowns" become less formidable when they become "knowns". On the other hand, it may be that those who become parents are less prone than others to emphasise these concerns at the outset. Both processes may well occur.
The patterns of results suggested the importance of each partner's work and parenting roles as considerations entering decisions about having a child. As noted above, the parenting capacity of each partner and the male partner's job security were clearly important to most respondents. In addition, women were more likely than men to express concern about the male partner's having the time and energy to put into his career and about the stress and worry associated with having a first or additional child. The latter concern in particular may be more commonly an issue for women than men because women are more likely to assume most of the responsibility for the everyday care of the children (see for example Baxter 2002; Bittman 2004; Morehead 2001).
For men without post-school qualifications, employment security was an important consideration when thinking about having a(nother) child, as was finding good affordable child care (an issue that was emphasised by almost half the women regardless of qualifications). More men without qualifications than men with tertiary qualifications rated as important the security of the male partner's job, the male partner being established in his career, finding good affordable child care, and the security of the female partner's job. Women's responses tended to be rather more similar across the categories of qualifications, although fewer tertiary qualified women than women with some or no post-school qualifications had concerns about the male partner being established in his career, or the time and energy available for the male partner's career.
8.6 Other issues to be examined
As noted in Chapter 1, there are many other factors that are not systematically addressed in this report that are likely to be linked with fertility aspirations and expectations. Some have already been mentioned by the respondents, including financial wellbeing, job conditions, and the quality of the relationship with one's partner. These and other issues, such as respondents' confidence in achieving conception through assisted reproductive technologies, will be explored in future research, thereby filling out the picture that is presented in this initial report.
8.7 Final word
This initial report clearly suggests that most Australians in their primary childbearing years either have or want children, with two-child families being the most popular, followed by families of three children. While most respondents expected to achieve their preferred family size, for some this had come about by a downward revision of aspirations to better fit personal circumstances. Furthermore, sizeable numbers did not expect to achieve their aspirations. On average, the family size considered to be ideal by both men and women was higher than replacement level, but also higher than the family size that respondents expected. The proportions of childless respondents who expected to have children were clearly higher than ABS estimations of the proportion of women who will remain childless.
A core set of issues appeared to shape aspirations and expectations. This set was evident in both the quantitative analysis (which identified differences in views across socio-demographic groups) and the qualitative analysis (which elicited from the respondents their reasons underlying their fertility aspirations and expectations). These issues included those that are commonly mentioned in the literature, such as concerns about "human capital" development and maintenance; achievement of an adequate income stream and ongoing secure employment; the perceived difficulties in having the time for both work and family life; and for older respondents, age and fecundity problems. Importantly, this report clearly suggests that people are very concerned about their capacity to be a good parent and to provide the emotional security for their children that comes from a secure relationship, most notably in marriage.
Despite Australia's economic prosperity, people remain concerned about their capacity to create and maintain a family environment in which children can be nurtured and supported financially and emotionally. Such concerns, real or perceived, reflect macro-level trends in economic and employment security and in relationship stability, as well as micro-level concerns about personal capacities to be a good parent. Strategies directed towards helping people achieve their childbearing aspirations need to tackle people's sense of security in each of these three domains. The data presented in this report suggest that these strategies should target forces both at the macro- and micro-levels - for neither level acts in isolation. In short, governments need to use a combination of approaches that is based on the recognition that the low fertility rate is not due to a "lack of wanting children".