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Research report no.11 2004

'It's not for lack of wanting kids...'
A report on the Fertility Decision Making Project

by Ruth Weston, Lixia Qu, Robyn Parker and Michael Alexander

5. Expectations of having children

While Chapter 4 focused on men's and women's personal ideals about family size and the desire to have a first or additional child, this chapter examines their expectations about having a child in the future, and where appropriate, the number and timing of children expected.

As noted in Chapter 1, expectations are likely to be strongly influenced by perceived constraints against, and opportunities for, realising aspirations. Constraints may include not only practical hurdles but also competing goals. However, aspirations themselves are unlikely to be divorced from perceptions of constraints and opportunities. Indeed, modifying aspirations to better fit likely achievements may be an important means of adjusting to circumstances and maintaining a positive sense of wellbeing.

McDonald (2000b) points out that policy needs to be directed towards helping those who would prefer to have a first or additional child but decide not to do so given their current circumstances. However, some people who have resolved not to have children may be unaware of just how strongly current barriers to having a child are shaping their decisions.¹² While in a cross-sectional study it is not possible to identify such people, a key issue that can be examined is the extent to which current ideals and preferences match current expectations.

5.1 Expectations about having a first or additional child and about the total number of children

Chapter 4 showed that the vast of majority of men and women were either parents or reported that they definitely wanted to have a child (73% of men and 86% of women). Only 3 per cent to 5 per cent who had no children said that they definitely did not want children. Responses regarding the ideal family size for the respondents themselves mirrored this pattern of results: only around 5 per cent of men and women nominated no children as their personal ideal, while nearly half indicated a preference for two children and around one quarter reported that a family of three children would be ideal for them. In line with these trends, non-parents along with parents of one child were the most likely to want a child (or another child) in the future, while those with four or more children were the least likely to feel this way.

However, as noted above, aspirations are probably less affected by perceived constraints than are expectations. To what extent, then, do patterns of expectations of respondents regarding having a first or additional child resemble those that emerged for ideal family size and aspirations about having a first or additional child?

5.1.1 Expectations by number of children ever had¹³

Figure 5.1 shows that most men and women with no children or with one child held positive expectations about having a child in the future (that is, they stated that this was "likely" or "very likely"), while most of those with two or more children held negative expectations (that is, they described their chances of having another child as "unlikely" or "very unlikely"). Of all groups, those with three or more children were the most unanimous: more than three-quarters expressed negative expectations, with close to two-thirds reporting that a child in the future was "very unlikely". Furthermore, total uncertainty (expressed as a 50:50 chance of having a child) declined progressively as the number of children respondents had increased from no children to three or more children (for men: from 20% to 10%; for women: from 17% to 12%).

Positive expectations were expressed by 64 per cent of men and 69 per cent of women without children and by 64 per cent of men and 57 per cent of women with one child. Whereas a higher proportion of women without children than those with one child considered they were "very likely" to have a child in the future (54% vs 46%), the reverse applied to men: 55 per cent of men with one child and 43 per cent of those with no children described their chances of having a child in the future as "very likely". Thus, slightly more men than women with one child expressed considerable confidence that they would have another child (55% vs 46%), while a slightly lower proportion of men than women without children felt this way (43% v 54%). While only a minority of respondents with fewer than two children held negative expectations, such expectations were expressed by a higher proportion of those with one child than of those with no children (for men: 22% vs 16%; for women: 27% vs 14%).

In general, these patterns of expectations were consistent with those that emerged regarding aspirations and ideals: two-child families were most commonly seen as the ideal family size (although applying to only 46% of women and 53% of men) and while most respondents with no children or only one child wanted a first or additional child, most of those with two children or three or more children, did not.

However, it is noteworthy that the proportions of respondents who reported that they were very likely or somewhat likely to have a child were lower than the proportions indicating that they "definitely" or "sort of" wanted a child (men: 54% vs 66%; women: 45% vs 55%).

5.1.2 Expectations by age

Not surprisingly, expectations about having a first or additional child were also related to respondents' age, although for each age group taken separately, those with no children or one child were more likely than those with two or more children to expect a child in the future. These results are depicted in Figures 5.2a (for men) and 5.2b (for women), where the sub-sample size was at least 19.¹⁴

Of men with no children or only one child, the proportions expecting a first or additional child decreased progressively with increasing age (from 75% to 32% of the childless and from 73% to 45% of those with one child). Although very similar proportions of men in their late twenties with no children or one child expected a first or additional child, for other age groups, men with one child were more inclined than those with no children to expect a child in the future.

Like their male counterparts, the proportions of women without children who expected a child fell as age increased (from 80% of women in their early twenties to 31% of women in their late thirties). However, this fall in the proportions expecting a child was particularly marked for women between their early and late thirties (61% vs 31%) - a trend that is likely to be influenced by women's declining fecundity during their thirties (regardless of the fact that the concentration of women who never wanted children will be greater amongst those in their late rather than early thirties). A marked fall in expectations between these age groups was also apparent for women with one child. In fact, results for women aged between 20 and 34 years with one child varied little according to age: between 65 per cent and 68 per cent indicated that they expected another child. However, only 25 per cent of 35-39 year old women with one child expected another child.

Thus, for women with one child, those in their early thirties were more than 2.5 times as likely as those in their late thirties to expect another child. Of women with no children, those in their early thirties were around twice as likely as those in their late thirties to expect a child.

There were too few men in their early twenties with two children to adequately assess their expectations. But, despite the strong popularity of two child families noted earlier, just over half the women in their early twenties who already had two children indicated that they expected to have another child (52%), and one quarter in their late twenties felt this way (25%). For the older women with two children, expectations to have another child fell from 21 per cent of those in their early thirties to only 7 per cent of those in their late thirties. These trends are consistent with reality - given that fecundity is age-related, those who begin their families at a relatively early age are, of course, the most likely to have the more than two children (Meyer 1999).

Only a minority of men and women in each age group with three or more children expected another child - and again, expectations were heavily age-dependent - with men in each age group being more likely than their female counterparts to expect another child.

When the analysis was restricted to those who wanted a child, the pattern of falling expectations with increasing age persisted, suggesting that both men and women lower their expectations of having children as they age even when they want children.

Respondents who indicated that they were "likely" or "very likely" to have a child in the future were asked how many (more) children they expected to have. In the following analysis, the number of future children expected was added to the number of children they already had (including adopted children). For those who felt that they had a 50:50 chance or lower chance of having a first or additional child, the expected number of children represents the actual number they have already had. Where the female respondent or female partner was pregnant, this pregnancy was included in the estimation of total children expected, for respondents were asked to exclude any current pregnancy in estimating their expected number of future children.

Figure 5.3 summarises the total number of children that men and women expected to have, including the number of children that they had already had.¹⁵ Not surprisingly, a family of two children was the most commonly expected by both men (37% to 47%) and women (41% to 46%). Whereas three child families were the second most commonly expected family size across gender and age groups, higher proportions of men in the four age groups expected to have no children than to have three children. Indeed, the proportion of men expecting to remain childless did not vary at all with age (26%, taken separately), although the proportion of men who expected to have one child increased with increasing age (from 3% to 10%).

In all age groups, men were more likely than women to expect to remain childless (26% vs 12% to 16%). For women, the proportion expecting to have no children and the proportion expecting one child fluctuated among the four age groups, with the youngest being the most likely to expect no children and the oldest being the most likely to expect one child. Unlike the men, women were more likely to expect three children (20% to 24%) than no children (12% to 16%).

However, for both men and women, the proportions expecting no children were higher than the proportions who considered no children to be their ideal (5% to 8% of men and 3% to 4% of women nominated no children as their ideal). The difference in the proportions expecting to have no children and aspiring to have no children was thus greater for men than women. It is unclear whether this arises from men being more cautious about having children compared with women. The fact that women generally begin their families at an earlier age than men is likely to at least partly explain these results, for current family size will carry considerable weight in shaping expectations.

5.1.3. Expectations by relationship status

Figures 5.4a and 5.4b depict the proportions of childless men and women who reported that they were "very likely" or "somewhat likely"' to have a child. These respondents are subdivided according to relationship status (married, cohabiting, single) and age (in their twenties or thirties).

Like aspirations regarding having a child, expectations of having a child changed significantly with relationship status regardless of age and gender. For both age groups, married men without children were the most likely to expect a child (94% for the 20-29 year-olds and 70% for the 30- 39 year-olds) and single childless men were the least likely to hold such expectations (69% and 37% respectively for the two age groups). The childless men who were cohabiting were less likely than those who were married but more likely than the single men to report being likely to have a child (80% for 20-29 years olds and 56% for the 30-39 year-olds).

Similar patterns emerged among the childless women. That is, married women without children were most likely to expect that they would have a child (87% of women in their twenties and 64% of women in their thirties), followed by women who were cohabiting (85% of women in their twenties and 61% of women in their thirties), and the single women were the least likely to expect to have a child (71% of women in their twenties and 40% in their thirties). However, the difference between married women and cohabiting women was very small for both age groups.

Furthermore, for both men and women, the difference between the single and the married in the proportions expecting to have a child was greater among those in their thirties than it was among those in their twenties. For instance, the difference between single women and married women in their twenties was 24 per cent (64% vs 40%), compared with 16 per cent (87% vs 71%) for those in their thirties.

While most men and women either had children or expected to have children, not surprisingly, Figures 5.5a and 5.5b show that the number of children that men and women expected to have varied with relationship status - both for those in their twenties and thirties (taken separately).

Very few married men and women expected to have no children at all (4% to 6% of men; 4% to 5% of women) or one child (4% to 9% of men; 5% to 10% of women). About half of married men and married women expected to have two children in total (53% to 55% of men; 49% to 50% of women). In addition, 21 per cent to 30 per cent of married men and 25 per cent to 28 per cent of married women expected to have three children. And slightly higher proportions of married respondents expected four or more children than no children (men: 9% to 10% vs 4% to 6%; women: 12% to 13% vs 4% to 5%).

Of the three marital status groups, those who were single were the most likely to expect to have no children - a trend that was particularly marked for men (men: 32% to 47%; women: 22% to 27%). Thus, even when in their twenties, close to one third of single men did not expect to have children. For all groups except single men and women in their thirties, two children represented the most common expectations. For single women in their thirties, much the same proportions expected two children or no children (29% and 27% respectively), while for single men in their thirties, a lower proportion expected two children than no children (26% vs 47%).

Thus, although most men and women had either had at least one child or expected to have at least one child, being single appeared to dampen this expectation, especially for those in their thirties. Of course, some single men and single women might remain single because they had no desire for a child and thus saw no need to be in a relationship. Nevertheless, the proportion of single men and women who were not expecting to have any children was higher than the proportion who considered no children to be their ideal. Of single men in their thirties, only 11 per cent reported no children to be their ideal, while 47 per cent expected no children. Of single women in their thirties, the proportions ideally wanting no children and expecting no children were 8 per cent and 27 per cent respectively. It appears that the inability to find a suitable partner represents an important factor explaining unfulfilled aspirations for having children. These results are consistent with those of Qu, Kilmartin and Weston (2000). These authors also found that the instability of existing relationships coupled with delays in having children during the relationship often resulted in changing expectations about having children.

In short, relationship status appeared to be an important factor influencing the number of children that men and women expected to have.

5.1.4. Expectations by education

As noted earlier, both men and women with or pursuing a degree or higher qualification were more likely than others to delay having children and thus were more likely to have no children. Nevertheless, of those who had no children, the majority of men and women in their twenties who had or were pursuing a degree or higher qualification wanted to have children. A lower proportion in their thirties felt this way - but the extent to which this reflects an increasing concentration of people who never wanted children or changing aspirations with age cannot be determined. Consistent with these aspirations, the likelihood of having a child declined with increasing age, but not with increasing education qualifications for both childless men and childless women (Figures 5.6a and 5.6b).

There is no evidence to suggest that these childless respondents who had or were pursuing higher qualifications were any more likely than others to be placing their career paths ahead of having children. However, these trends may reflect selectivity amongst the childless: as indicated in Chapter 3, those with low education were more likely than those with higher education to already have them.

Overall the total number of children respondents expected to have did not appear to vary with men's education level for either age group (Figure 5.7a). Regardless of men's educational status, two children were the most commonly expected, followed by no children.

However, the number of children that women in their twenties expected to have was significantly linked to their educational status (Figure 5.7b). Of those in their twenties, women with or pursuing any post-school qualifications were more likely than other women to expect to have no children at all (16% to 17% vs 9%), and less likely to expect to have three or more children (28% to 31% vs 37%).

For women in their thirties, the higher the educational qualifications achieved or being pursued, the more likely they were to expect to remain childless (from 5% to 17%) and the less likely they were to expect three or more children (applying to 25% of those with or pursuing a degree or higher qualification and 36% of those with no existing or pursuit of post-school qualifications).

Across both age and educational groups, the proportions of men expecting no children were considerably higher than the proportions who considered no children to be their ideal - as outlined in chapter 4 (23% to 27% expected no children while less than 10% preferred no children). A lower proportion of women than men in each age and educational status group expected no children. Furthermore, while higher proportions of all these female groups expected than wanted no children, the difference was only marginal for those without post-school qualifications (women in their twenties: 9% vs 3%; women in their thirties: 5% vs 2%). (Of those with or pursuing degrees or higher, the differences were 16% vs 6% for those in their twenties and 17% vs 6% for those in their thirties. Of those with or pursuing other post-school qualifications, the differences were 17% vs 3% and 13% vs 3% respectively.)

5.1.5. Expectations by employment status

Consistent with their aspirations, fertility expectations of those without children did not vary significantly with employment status for those in their twenties and thirties (Figure 5.8). Once again, however, it is important to point out that there were only 21 men in their thirties and 26 women in their thirties working part time, so percentages for these groups are likely to be unreliable. All other groups comprised more than 50 respondents.

For men, no significant relationship was apparent between the number of children expected and employment status for those in their twenties, while for those in their thirties, a marginally significant trend emerged (Figure 5.9a). However, it should be noted there were only 37 men in their thirties who were in part-time work represented in Figure 5.9a. Percentages for this group are likely to be unreliable.

The relationship between expected number of children and employment status for men in their thirties was complex. Those who were working full-time were the most likely to expect two children, while those who were not in paid work were the least likely to expect this (44% vs 32%). Conversely, those not employed were the most likely to expect four or more children while those working part-time were the least likely to do so (12% vs 3%). Finally, those working part-time were the most likely of all groups to expect one child, while those working fulltime were the least likely (19% vs 8%). Nevertheless, as for the women, a family of two children represented the most common expectation of these younger and older men in each of employment status.

For women in both their twenties and in their thirties, expectations about family size varied significantly with employment status (Figure 5.9b). Women in full-time work were considerably more likely than those with no paid work or those working part-time to expect to remain childless (21% vs 11% to 13% of women in their twenties; 27% vs 7% of women in their thirties). Conversely, those who were not in paid work were the most likely to expect four or more children while those in full-time work were the least likely to do so (13% vs 4% of women in their twenties; 15% vs 5% of women in their thirties).

While for women in their twenties much the same proportions in each employment status group expected three children (22% to 23%), for those in their thirties, three children was expected by only 13 per cent who were in full-time paid work, compared with 24 per cent and 25 per cent of those who worked part-time or who were not in paid work. Thus, of women who were working full-time, those in their twenties were more likely than those in their thirties to expect three children (22% vs 13%).

However, the differences between the views of the younger and older women who worked fulltime do not necessarily reflect changing views with age for those working full-time work. As noted in Chapter 4 many of those in their twenties who were working part-time or not at all were pursuing higher education. Some of these women are likely to move to full-time work when in their thirties, while some of the younger women currently working full-time may convert to parttime work or give up paid work when in their thirties.

Furthermore, it must be pointed out that employment status was linked with current family size, and respondents' expected total number of children refers to current family size plus any extra children expected. As noted in Chapter 3, both younger and older women who were in full-time work were the most likely to be childless (89% and 61% respectively), while those not in paid work were the least likely to be in this position (11% and 7% respectively). While very few women in their twenties already had four or more children, those who were not employed were more likely than those working full-time to have at least three children (8% vs 2%, cf. 7% with part-time paid work). Of women in their thirties, those not employed were the most likely to have four or more children (11%), followed by those working part-time (4%), then full-time (3%). Thus, most in the small group of women who were not working who expected to have a family of four already had this number of children, which may explain their not working. But with cross-sectional data, it is not possible to tease out the existence of causal links, nor the direction of causation, should it exist.

In summary, respondents in all employment status groups most commonly expected two children. While a somewhat complex but weak relationship was apparent between the expectations and employment status for men in their thirties, strong relationships between expectations and employment status were apparent for both younger and older women. As might be anticipated, women with full-time paid jobs were the most likely to expect to remain childless and the least likely to expect to have four or more children, while those not in paid work were the most likely to expect to have four or more children. Of course, although applying to a minority, the latter women were also the most likely to have families of this size already.

To what extent do these results reflect different aspirations about family size for women in the three employment status groups? Chapter 4 suggested that only 6 per cent of women who worked full-time in fact considered childlessness to be their ideal. Women in full-time work were the most likely to expect to remain childless, while those not in paid work were the least likely to do so (30% vs 11% of women in their twenties; 27% vs 7% for women in their thirties).

5.2. Expected timing of first or next child

As noted above, Azjen (1985, 1988, 1991) emphasises the close link between intentions and perceived constraints. According to his theory of planned behaviour, behaviour to achieve goals is initiated when the opportunity to engage in it arises. However, for a variety of reasons, not all intentions are followed through with action. Ajzen (1985) argues that the longer the time frame established for carrying out intentions, the lower their predictability, other things being equal. Secondly, he notes that vague intentions are less likely to result in action than intentions involving strong commitment. Intentions may also be revised in the light of changing circumstances, new information, or changing importance attached to rewards and costs. For instance, Ajzen points out that as the time of taking action draws near, the likely negative repercussions of such action may loom large and appear to outweigh the perceived rewards. Furthermore, some people change their minds more readily than others.

In the Fertility Decision Making Project, respondents who indicated that they were "very likely" or "somewhat likely" to have a first or additional child were asked to nominate the year in which they expected this (next) child.

Figure 5.10 shows that women expected to have their child sooner than did men: nearly half the men (49%) and nearly two thirds of the women (64%) reported that they expected to have this child within the next three years, with most of these respondents expecting to have within the next two years, rather than within the next two to three years. One third of the men (34%) and just over one quarter of the women (27%) felt that they would have their child within the next four to six years while 14 per cent of men and 7 per cent of women felt that they would not have this first or next child within the next six years.

Parents were more likely than those without children to expect another child within the next three years (men: 78% vs 33% in their twenties and 82% vs 67% in their thirties; women: 77% vs 46% in their twenties and 91% vs 82% in their thirties). This difference is likely to reflect the fact that, compared with parents, those without children tended to be younger and were more likely to be single. The difference in the time frame for having children reported by parents and non-parents was greater for men and women in their twenties than it was for those in their thirties (Figures 5.11a and 5.11b).

Figures 5.11a and 5.11b also show that non-parents in their twenties were less likely than nonparents in their thirties to expect a child within the next three years (men: 33% vs 67%; women 45% vs 82%). This is hardly surprising given that non-parents in their twenties were considerably more likely than their counterparts in their thirties to be single. Of the parents, much the same proportions of men in their twenties and thirties expected a child within the next three years (78% and 82% respectively), but mothers in their twenties were less likely than mothers in their thirties to expect to have their child within this time frame (77% vs 91%). These trends for mothers are probably influenced by the fact that some of the older women would have been approaching the end of their childbearing years.

Figure 5.12 depicts the proportions of childless men and women in four age groups who reported that they would have their expected child within the next three years. These proportions increased with increasing age for men, but levelled out for women during their thirties. However, women in each age group were more likely than their male counterparts to expect to have a child within this time frame. More than 80 per cent of the women in their thirties expected to have a child within the next three years - suggesting that they had become very mindful of their "biological clock". Of course, men too may have become increasingly mindful of their partner's "biological clock" as they age. However, other considerations may also influence these trends - such as concerns about the width of the "generation gap", ability to cope with parenting when older, the possibility of retiring while the child is still dependent and so on. The perceived importance of various considerations that enter into decisions about having children are outlined in Chapter 7.

As for women without children, the proportions of mothers reporting that they would have their expected child within the next three years increased progressively from 32 per cent of those in their early twenties to 82 per cent of those in their early thirties, then levelled out (82% in their late thirties expected to have their child within the next three years). It was not possible to identify related trends for fathers given the small numbers in some age groups who expected to have a child.

5.3 Summary and conclusions

This chapter has focused on three sets of expectations held by respondents: how likely they were to have a child in the future, how many they were likely to have, and (where appropriate) the year in which they were likely to have their first or next child. In this analysis, the number of children they expected in the future was added to the number they already had, thereby yielding the total "family size" they expected.

5.3.1 Expectations about having a child and expected family size

Like aspirations, expectations were consistent with the current "two-child family" norm. Most men and women with one child or no children expected to have a child in the future, while most of those with two or more children did not. Consistent with these trends, both men and women most commonly indicated that they expected a family of two children.

Nevertheless, sizeable minorities deviated from these trends. Some respondents with fewer than two children did not expect a child in the future, and some with at least two children expected another. Furthermore, men with one child were more likely than their female counterparts to expect another child. Nevertheless, the proportions of respondents who expected a first or additional child were lower than the proportions indicating that they would like to have such a child.

Expectations by age

While the proportions expecting a first or additional child tended to decrease progressively with age, to some extent this link varied according to gender and the number of children respondents already had. Between their early and late thirties, the apparent "fall" in the proportions expecting a child was particularly marked for women with no children or only one child. Indeed, unlike their male counterparts, the proportion of mothers with one child who expected another did not fall until age 35. These trends for women highlight the growing importance of their "biological clock" during the thirties and the fact that men's partners tend to be younger than the men themselves.

However, it is also important to note that the overall fall in the proportions expecting a child that occurs with increasing age would partly result from the increasing concentration in the older age groups of those who either never intended having children, or who had achieved their preferred family size at a relatively young age.

Furthermore, whereas a family of three was more popular than childlessness for both men and women in all five-year age groups, a higher proportion of men in each age group expected to be childless than to have three children. Women, on the other hand, were more likely to expect a family of three children than no children.

Relationship status

Fertility expectations were strongly related to relationship status in understandable ways: married men and women without children were the most likely to expect to have a family, while their counterparts who were single were the least likely to feel this way. (However, for women, there was little difference in the patterns of responses for those who were cohabiting and those who were married.) These trends held for those in their twenties as well as those in their thirties.

In other words, the link between relationship status and expectations could not be explained in terms of systematic differences in the age of people in these different relationship status groups. Not surprisingly, expectations about starting a family were strongly linked with both age and relationship status, with married respondents in their twenties being the most likely to expect to start of family, and single respondents in their thirties being the least likely to expect this. Such trends highlight the importance of relatively early marriage and relationship stability for fertility.

With the exception of single men and women in their thirties, respondents in all marital status groups most commonly expected to have two children. For single women in their thirties, much the same proportions expected two children or no children, while for single men in their thirties, a higher proportion expected no children than two children.

While some of these childless respondents may have never wanted either marriage or children, it is noteworthy that the proportion of single men and women in their thirties who expected to remain childless was greater than the proportion who indicated no children as their personal ideal. Once again, then, relationship circumstances emerge as important issues explaining fertility expectations.

Education

Pursuit of higher education is another factor that delays family formation and increases the risks of remaining childless. Nevertheless, there was no evidence to suggest that childless respondents who had or were pursuing a degree were any less likely than others to expect that they would start a family. Indeed, childless men in their twenties who neither had nor were pursuing postschool qualifications were significantly less likely than those with or pursuing degrees to expect to have children (although the majority did expect children). A similar direction of results, though not statistically significant, applied to men in their thirties. Thus, it would appear that those with no post-school qualifications were more likely than men who were pursuing or had achieved a degree to be pessimistic about achieving their aim of having a family.

The total number of children expected varied significantly with the education level of women but not men. Compared with women with no qualifications, higher proportions of women who had or were pursuing some form of post-school qualifications expected to have no children and lower proportions expected to have a family of three children. This is not surprising. Regardless of whether or not women who start a family early are more "family-oriented" than other women, their child care responsibilities would limit their opportunities for obtaining post-school qualifications.

Nevertheless, the difference between ideals and expectations about having a first child was greater for childless women who had or were pursuing post-school qualifications than for their counterparts with no post-school qualifications. These trends highlight the difficulties some women face in achieving higher education while hoping to have children. Some of these difficulties may relate to competing career or work/family goals; others may relate to concerns about the diminishing chances of ever having children incurred by their postponement of partnership or family formation.

Employment status

Unlike their expectations about having a first or additional child, expectations concerning total family size varied significantly with employment status (but only weakly so for men in their thirties, and not for men in their twenties). Women in their twenties and thirties (taken separately) with full-time paid work were more likely than their counterparts with part-time or no paid work to expect to remain childless. Conversely, those women without paid work were the most likely to expect to have four or more children. Nevertheless, compared to their counterparts with no paid work, higher proportions of childless women in full-time paid work expected than wanted to remain childless (as measured by ideal family size). Of course, for some of these women, competing work/family goals may contribute to their unfulfilled family formation ideals, but for others, lack of opportunity to start a family is likely to be a central factor.

5.3.2 Expected timing of next child

According to Azjen's (1985, 1988, 1991) model of decision-making, the time frame established for carrying out intentions is an important determinant of whether or not such intentions will be carried out. The shorter the time frame, the more likely it is that the intended action will be initiated. While both men and women who expected to have a child in the future most commonly expected that they would have this child within two years, men were more likely than women to suggest that they would not have a child until four or more years time. This partly reflects the tendency for men to start a family at a later age than women.

Men and women who were parents - especially those in their twenties - tended to expect a child sooner than did their childless counterparts of the same age. Of those in their thirties, the longest time frame was nominated by men who were childless, and the shortest by mothers. These differences were influenced by partnership status. Non-parents were more likely to be single and thus their chances of having a child in the near future were more remote.

Of the childless respondents who expected to have a child, more than 60 per cent of women from age 25 onwards and of men in their thirties expected to have a child within the next three years. However, women in all age groups were more likely than their male counterparts to expect this, with more than 80 per cent of women in their early and late thirties expecting a child within this time frame. These trends highlight women's acknowledgement of their diminishing fecundity in their thirties.

The analysis in this chapter once again points to the importance of the interacting links between views on having children and age, relationship status, education and employment status. There was considerable evidence that lower proportions of older single respondents, women with or pursuing post-school qualifications, and women in full-time work expected than wanted children. The next chapter examines the latter issue in more detail. It focuses on personal matches or mismatches between fertility aspirations, fertility expectations, and the number of children respondents already had.

12. For instance, Qu, Kilmartin and Weston (2000) found that single people who later partnered often converted from not expecting children to expecting them, while the opposite applied to partnered respondents whose partnerships ended. [back]
13. Family size takes into account any current pregnancy. For example, where the respondent or partner is pregnant with their first child, the respondent is considered to have one child. This decision is consistent with the question wording tapping expectations about having a/another child, which was preceded by "Apart from the child you are already having, ..." where applicable. [back]
14. The smaller the size of these groups, the less reliable are the derived percentages. [back]
15. Two per cent of men and women did not estimate the number of children they expected. The non-response rate on this question was higher among the younger age groups (3-4% of men and women aged 20-24) than the older age groups (1 per cent of men and women aged 35-39). [back]
16. Percentage for women aged 35-39 was based on a sample of 22 women. [back]

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